As the Republican Party licks its wounds over a historic drubbing in the midterm elections, some members are looking to an unlikely saviour. 

Sources close to the outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis say he is preparing another run for the party’s presidential nomination, following a short-lived challenge to Donald Trump in 2024 that led to a bitter feud between the two men. 

DeSantis, 48, has been quick out of the gates to offer a diagnosis of the party’s election failings, and position himself as a potential solution. 

On the eve of the election, he said that the Iran war had been a “big, big drag” on Republicans: “We just got to be honest. Gas is higher. It hurts people, working-class people, and it’s higher because of this conflict.” 

He later described the results, in which Democrats won control of the House and the Senate, as “close to an extinction-level event for Republicans”. He added that his priorities as governor helped “prevent the worst from happening” in Florida, where Republican Byron Donalds won the race for governor and Republican Ashley Moody held her seat in the Senate.

Despite his media tour, DeSantis, known for his policies against Florida’s LGBT+ community over his eight years in office, has played down reports that he is about to launch a campaign. 

But political analysts suggest he has few other options with his term running out in Florida and no available Senate seat in the state. There are also other factors that could work in his favour in a presidential race: Florida stayed red during the Republicans’ worst election night in a generation, and DeSantis was not part of the administration that delivered it. 

DeSantis appears to have early momentum as the third-favourite for the nomination in betting markets behind Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He consistently features among the leaders in opinion polls. 

The Republican Party’s centre of gravity has shifted since the midterms wipeout, said Jude Russo, managing editor of magazine, in a way that could damage the presumed frontrunners, Vance and Rubio. 

“Clearly, last week, voters rejected the Trump administration,” he said. “That is going to make it very difficult for figures within the administration to make a case in 2028, that they’ll be able to put air between themselves and this administration’s policies.”

US military interventions abroad are widely expected to be a central theme of the nomination contest in light of the unpopularity of the Iran war. Vance set out his stall with an anti-war message following the election, as well as citing a need to “change our relationship with Israel”.

DeSantis may be able to court both sides of the argument, Russo said. The former marine’s criticism of the war – and mixed record on support for Ukraine – departs from a previous record that aligned him with the hawkish wing of the party. Russo believes he may now be playing a double game to win support from all sides of the party.

“You may see Ron DeSantis gain a lot of support from the hawks,” he said, adding that he could be the preferred choice of donors from the Republicans’ interventionist wing, such as Israeli-American billionaire Miriam Adelson. “The smart money could be on him.”

The Floridian could also have broad appeal within the party as a current outsider who represents a form of continuity Trumpism, suggested Dr Liv Coleman, a political science professor at the University of Tampa, Florida, who has researched and written about DeSantis’ record running the state. 

“He was hewed closely to Trump’s style of policies in Florida, while putting his own spin on them,” she said, noting his creation of the “Alligator Alcatraz” detention centre for illegal immigrants, and opposition to vaccines during the Covid-19 pandemic. 

DeSantis has also gone further than Trump in embracing right-wing populist positions on LGBT+ issues. He became embroiled in a feud with Disney over his “Don’t Say Gay” law on discussion of homosexuality in schools, and passed legislation that allowed libraries to remove books with LGBT+ characters. A slew of measures targeting the transgender community was dubbed a “slate of hate” by civil rights campaigners.

The prospective nominee could benefit from Trump’s favour, which remains vital in a party where the leader continues to enjoy strong approval ratings. Trump said last year their relationship had been restored to a “10… maybe a 9.9” out of 10 after a fractious contest for the 2024 nomination, when he branded his rival disloyal and coined the term “Ron DeSanctimonious” to disparage him. 

The Republican field is still taking shape, with candidates traditionally declaring in the next spring after midterms. Beyond Vance and Rubio, Senator Ted Cruz is expected to run. Thomas Massie, a staunch anti-interventionist who lost his Congress seat when he fell foul of Trump, also has supporters. Meanwhile, prominent figures outside of politics, such as former host Tucker Carlson, could run.

While DeSantis’s stock fell after his failed campaign in 2024, Russo thinks it is unlikely to damage him. “Republicans really love nominating guys who have a failed run under their belt,” he said. “We did it with Mitt Romney. We did it with John McCain. Donald Trump hadn’t run on the Republican ticket, but he did run on the Reform ticket in 2000.” 

Some prominent Republicans could also pass on the 2028 election that appears heavily weighted towards the Democrats after their midterm triumphs, analysts suggest. Marco Rubio is among those appearing reluctant to join the contest, telling reporters this week “I’m just not gonna talk about 2028 anymore”. 

Dr Giorgios Samaras, a US politics and foreign policy specialist at King’s College London, said “the election cycle in 2028 looks like a very easy win for the Democrats”, and Republicans could be better served waiting for the political climate to turn. “The Republican candidates who run now might face an abrupt end in 2028 and then lose the opportunity to run again in 2032,” he said. 

Samaras also pointed to another problem for the party – a lack of new blood, and just a handful of Congress members under 40. “The GOP has done nothing to renew its own ranks,” he said. 

That could leave veteran campaigners to compete for the crown – and DeSantis may believe his time has come.